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NGADM '15 Round 1 "Analysis"

2015-08-27 06:30:44 by LunacyEcho

So the results for the first round of the Newgrounds Audio Death Match have come out! There's lots of numbers, and I thought it might be fun to look at the numbers and see if anything interesting came up. Disclaimer: I am by no means an expert mathematician, and I might be completely wrong in my understanding of some of these concepts! But hopefully it'll be able to satisfy anyone who's curious to see the scores in a different light. :P

Round 1 Entries by Score

??) - N/A - frootza

01) - 9.38 - bassfiddlejones + joshgawaldomusic
02) - 9.25 - dem0lecule + LucidShadowDreamer
03) - 9.22 - SoundChris + JacobCadmus
04) - 9.10 - PirateCrab
05) - 8.96 - midimachine

06) - 8.87 - LunacyEcho
07) - 8.82 - Azhthar
08) - 8.81 - DSykMusic
09) - 8.75 - SkyeWint
10) - 8.73 - papkee
11) - 8.68 - aliaspharow
12) - 8.62 - IglicaV

13) - 8.59 - Metallica1136
14) - 8.53 - EliteFerrex
15) - 8.52 - Jabicho
16) - 8.46 - NyxTheShield
17) - 8.43 - BlazingDragon
17) - 8.43 - LiquidOoze
17) - 8.43 - lordedri
17) - 8.43 - SolarexMusic
21) - 8.42 - Lich
22) - 8.41 - LunyAlex
23) - 8.40 - Tyven
24) - 8.34 - JDawg00100
25) - 8.20 - Stadler
26) - 8.18 - Mawnz
27) - 8.16 - Analogstik
28) - 8.15 - Phonometrologist
28) - 8.15 - Yahtzei
30) - 8.14 - ChronoNomad
30) - 8.14 - Jimmypig
32) - 8.03 - AeronMusic
33) - 8.02 - Camoshark
33) - 8.02 - Ceevro
35) - 7.97 - nubbinownz
36) - 7.95 - InYourDreams
37) - 7.93 - TheMoebiusProject
38) - 7.89 - thebitterroost
39) - 7.87 - Sequenced
40) - 7.84 - Braiton
41) - 7.80 - Jacob
41) - 7.80 - Marterro
43) - 7.77 - DivoFST
44) - 7.75 - larrynachos
45) - 7.74 - adieuwinter
45) - 7.74 - JustinOfSuburbia
47) - 7.73 - Voltus
48) - 7.50 - Chemiqals
49) - 7.38 - DjAbbic
50) - 7.32 - SourJovis
51) - 7.31 - Nimble
52) - 7.18 - Birdinator99
52) - 7.18 - Crueldeity
54) - 6.85 - SilverPoyozo
55) - 6.67 - Pandasticality
56) - 6.65 - Athanatos

The score breakdowns are actually quite interesting! The scores in general seem to be quite high, with a median score of 8.14. There were also lots of ties this year, complete with a 4-way tie for 17th place! The groupings this year were also full of surprises. We had Group C, where no one submitted except frootza, which means he didn't have to be scored, since he moved on directly! We also had the insane Group P, with the dream team of dem0 and LSD taking home a victory over three other high-scorers. All four scores in Group P were in the top 17, and every member had a number of groups in which they would've advanced, had they been seeded into them!

Speaking of groups, here are the group averages and medians, so you can see how competitive the groups were!

Round 1 Groups by Average Score

Rank - Average - Median - Group - Winner

??) - N/A - N/A - Group C - frootza

01) - 8.81 - 8.77 - Group P - dem0lecule + LucidShadowDreamer
02) - ​8.65 - 8.41 - Group L - bassfiddlejones + joshgawaldomusic
03) - 8.59 - 8.70 - Group D - SoundChris + JacobCadmus
04) - 8.53 - 8.43 - Group E - SkyeWint
05) - 8.36 - 8.45 - Group A - PirateCrab
06) - 8.29 - 8.18 - Group N - EliteFerrex
07) - 8.25 - 8.32 - Group K - IglicaV
08) - 8.24 - 8.09 - Group J - Azhthar
09) - 8.05 - 7.98 - Group I  - NyxTheShield
10) - 8.02 - 7.97 - Group G - midimachine
11) - 7.95 - 8.00 - Group H - Lich
12) - 7.79 - 8.05 - Group O - JDawg00100
13) - 7.64 - 7.85 - Group F - thebitterroost
14) - 7.58 - 7.67 - Group M - ChronoNomad
15) - 7.43 - 7.20 - Group B - aliaspharow

So not only did the three team entries get the three highest scores, they topped the three most competitive group brackets as well! There's also some interesting relationships when you factor in the medians, because using them, the top three most competitive groups become P, D, and A. The groups with the largest difference between the average and median are groups O, L, and B, with differences of 0.26, 0.24, and 0.23 respectively. 

It's not just the contestants that make up the NGADM - it's the judges too. An NG user named gadogry used to do analyses of previous NGADMs where he would calculate the average score and standard deviation of each judge. Personally, I just learned what standard deviation was a few hours ago at the time of this writing, so I'm going to try something similar, and please correct me if you see any mistakes!

Round 1 Judges (Average Score/Standard Deviation)

StepW - 8.36 / 0.764
MetalRenard - 7.97 / 0.762
stunkel - 8.23 / 0.630
TaintedLogic - 7.99 / 1.107
Neon-Bard - 8.23 / 0.629
Geoplex - 8.14 / 0.826

Thanks to gadogry for clearing up what standard deviations are! Visit the comments section to learn more about this statistical stuff from gadogry himself or if you want to share your own thoughts on the matter! (And especially visit if you see any errors!) If you want to see the actual numbers I used to calculate this stuff (which is now outdated because of a few mistakes I made), you can download my spreadsheet here

Anyways, I hope I've been able to satisfy some curious minds about the first round of this year's NGADM! I'm looking forward to rounds to come, and will be following it closely. Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed it!


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